COL beat PIT 5–4 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Drouin scored at 0:54 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:53 | PIT | Jesse Puljujarvi from Reilly Smith, Sidney Crosby | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:11 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Sidney Crosby | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 13:47 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Valtteri Puustinen | 3–0 | 86% → 96% |
| P2 15:40 | PIT | Pierre-Olivier Joseph from Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang | 4–0 | 97% → 99% |
| P2 16:05 | COL | Sean Walker from Ross Colton, Miles Wood | 4–1 | 1% → 3% |
| P2 19:30 | COL | Yakov Trenin from Brandon Duhaime | 4–2 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 3:32 | COL | Jonathan Drouin from Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews | 4–3 | 9% → 25% |
| P3 15:22 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Jonathan Drouin, Devon Toews | 4–4 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 0:54 | COL | Jonathan Drouin from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 19:04 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.05 | +0.89 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:10 | 1 | 3 | +0.67 | −0.13 | +0.64 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 10:57 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.04 | +0.78 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 20:11 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.26 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John St. Ivany D | 12:53 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 4:56 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| John Ludvig D | 12:40 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 17:49 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 6:15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 11:45 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:37 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 15:55 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 19:06 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 16:26 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 18:16 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 23:04 | −0.39 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:40 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 25:01 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.34 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 10:05 | −0.40 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 50:46 | −1.54 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Drouin L | 20:47 | 2 | 1 | +1.50 | +0.15 | +1.36 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Sean Walker D | 17:10 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.12 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 9:11 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:52 | 1 | 2 | +0.57 | +0.09 | +0.18 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 |
| Josh Manson D | 18:05 | +0.22 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 25:10 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 22:41 | +0.18 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 13:16 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 10:15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 12:25 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:52 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 11:52 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:17 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 6:50 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 7:46 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 21:45 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 20:31 | −0.29 | +0.13 | −0.43 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:57 | −0.46 | +0.03 | −0.48 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:54 | −1.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.