NYR beat FLA 4–3 in a shootout. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Artemi Panarin scored at 16:35 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 10% to 51%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:18 |  FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Joshua Mahura, Carter Verhaeghe | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:21 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Sam Reinhart, Uvis Balinskis | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 6:22 | NYR | Adam FoxPP from Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 8:23 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 15:52 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Brandon Montour, Matthew Tkachuk | 3–2 | 49% → 88% |
| P3 16:35 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Zac Jones, Vincent Trocheck | 3–3 | 10% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.00 | +0.68 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 19:06 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.06 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:08 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.71 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 20:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.17 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Joshua Mahura D | 16:28 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 8:37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 9:24 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 17:01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Uvis Balinskis D | 20:19 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:02 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 19:16 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 24:22 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 19:01 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 12:51 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 9:57 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:10 | −0.47 | −0.12 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:02 | −0.56 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 18:33 | −0.88 | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.35 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 65:00 | −1.18 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin L | 23:26 | 2 | +2.09 | −0.11 | +1.28 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.84 | |
| Adam Fox D | 28:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.05 | +0.46 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:28 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.22 | −0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.71 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 12:11 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:52 | +0.04 | +0.37 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 20:02 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 20:21 | +0.00 | +0.24 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 12:04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 13:59 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 13:19 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 13:54 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 10:32 | −0.11 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:07 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 7:31 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 19:17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 19:44 | −0.40 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 25:54 | 3 | −0.40 | −0.25 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.13 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 65:00 | −0.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.