OTT beat NJD 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.7, NJD 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Angus Crookshank scored at 6:02 of the second, moving OTT’s win probability from 47% to 67%. Jake Allen allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:56 |  OTT | Mathieu JosephSH unassisted | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P2 0:23 |  NJD | Jesper Bratt unassisted | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 0:59 | NJD | Tomas Nosek from Ondrej Palat, Dawson Mercer | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:06 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Mathieu Joseph | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:02 | OTT | Angus Crookshank from Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 9:01 | OTT | Thomas Chabot from Brady Tkachuk, Erik Brannstrom | 4–2 | 68% → 84% |
| P3 10:15 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Brady Tkachuk | 5–2 | 96% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Joseph R | 13:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.05 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.05 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ridly Greig C | 13:53 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.04 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Angus Crookshank C | 13:52 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.05 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 18:48 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.18 | +0.63 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 18:47 | +0.32 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 6:26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 7:05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 18:05 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 12:17 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 16:07 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 22:15 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 12:07 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:46 | −0.17 | +0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 11:20 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:41 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 20:03 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:16 | 2 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 59:52 | +0.64 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:20 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.03 | +0.80 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 16:55 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.09 | +0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:12 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 11:53 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick DeSimone D | 17:01 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 18:56 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:44 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 18:03 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 4:14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:34 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 9:24 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 17:58 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 8:53 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 20:47 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 20:56 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 19:20 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 17:08 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:52 | −0.62 | −0.05 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | −2.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.