STL beat MIN 5–4 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Saad scored at 2:05 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:07 | STL | Jake Neighbours from Brayden Schenn | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 4:45 | MIN | Marcus Johansson from Brock Faber, Matt Boldy | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 11:44 | MIN | Marco Rossi from Kirill Kaprizov | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 12:49 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Pavel Buchnevich | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 15:11 | MIN | Marco Rossi from Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 3:50 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Pavel Buchnevich, Nick Leddy | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 10:01 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Brandon Saad, Pavel Buchnevich | 4–3 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 14:51 | MIN | Brock Faber from Ryan Hartman, Jake Middleton | 4–4 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 2:05 | STL | Brandon Saad from Kasperi Kapanen, Justin Faulk | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:49 | 3 | +2.42 | −0.09 | +2.51 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 17:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake Neighbours L | 19:21 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.07 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:15 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.20 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Scott Perunovich D | 12:05 | +0.09 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 11:06 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 9:39 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 5:53 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:54 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 8:16 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 23:27 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:54 | 3 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:35 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 23:48 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:16 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.33 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:56 | −0.45 | −0.26 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 24:04 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 20:56 | −0.61 | −0.31 | −0.42 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 62:05 | −0.29 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rossi C | 20:53 | 2 | +1.00 | +0.27 | +0.79 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brock Faber D | 23:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.18 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marcus Johansson L | 14:58 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.17 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 13:40 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 25:01 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 19:37 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 18:20 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 15:18 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 7:35 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 15:27 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Shaw C | 8:46 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 22:16 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Beckman L | 9:48 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Lucchini C | 11:34 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 12:59 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:59 | 2 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.46 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:30 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.42 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:47 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.23 | −0.63 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 62:05 | −2.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.