ARI beat SEA 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (SEA 3.0, ARI 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dylan Guenther scored at 4:12 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Karel Vejmelka saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 7:40 | SEA | Ryker Evans from Jared McCann, Jaden Schwartz | 1–0 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 18:52 |  ARI | Clayton KellerPP from Nick Bjugstad, Nick Schmaltz | 1–1 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 4:12 | ARI | Dylan Guenther from Logan Cooley | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryker Evans D | 21:39 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.04 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 8:23 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 20:43 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 22:53 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 23:07 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 9:39 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:05 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 18:18 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 13:51 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 14:49 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 16:18 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 17:11 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 10:14 | −0.22 | +0.22 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 18:00 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 19:34 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.05 | −0.36 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:39 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:50 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 24:23 | −0.41 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 64:12 | +0.97 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 21:57 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.08 | +0.42 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:56 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.18 | +0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 24:57 | +0.18 | +0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 11:12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:01 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 17:29 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 19:57 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:06 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.20 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Leonard L | 6:54 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 15:39 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:24 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 20:16 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 18:12 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 21:04 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:38 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:12 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 17:57 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 15:00 | −0.64 | +0.01 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 63:57 | +1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.