WSH beat CAR 7–6 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 3.5, WSH 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Sebastian Aho scored on the power play at 17:39 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 8% to 49%. Pyotr Kochetkov allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:53 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Jake Guentzel, Jaccob Slavin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 12:45 | WSH | Sonny MilanoPP from Connor McMichael | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 19:12 | CAR | Jaccob Slavin from Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Stefan Noesen | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 13:59 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Dylan Strome, Ivan Miroshnichenko | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 14:40 | WSH | Sonny Milano from Dylan Strome | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 15:23 | CAR | Sebastian Aho from Jake Guentzel | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 19:54 | CAR | Brady Skjei from Martin Necas | 4–3 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 3:45 | WSH | John CarlsonPP from Hendrix Lapierre, Alex Ovechkin | 4–4 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 8:19 | WSH | Sonny Milano from Rasmus Sandin, Dylan Strome | 4–5 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 9:35 | CAR | Seth JarvisPP from Jake Guentzel, Andrei Svechnikov | 5–5 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 13:53 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Ivan Miroshnichenko | 5–6 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 17:39 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Martin Necas, Brent Burns | 6–6 | 8% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:33 | 3 | +2.19 | +0.38 | +2.29 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.44 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 19:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.80 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Seth Jarvis R | 21:38 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.08 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 23:19 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.21 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 16:53 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brendan Lemieux L | 6:16 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 17:22 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 6:39 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:39 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 16:12 | −0.18 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:23 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.27 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 23:15 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 18:35 | 3 | −0.34 | +0.16 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:04 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 16:21 | −0.58 | −0.05 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.30 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 16:42 | −0.89 | −0.10 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 16:55 | 1 | −1.01 | +0.07 | −0.54 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.35 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 64:41 | −2.62 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny Milano L | 19:11 | 3 | +2.08 | +0.07 | +2.30 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 25:06 | 3 | +1.45 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.07 | +1.06 | |
| John Carlson D | 29:57 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.04 | +0.66 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 16:50 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 7:59 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 21:03 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 12:40 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 22:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.39 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Connor McMichael L | 18:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.28 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.35 |
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 10:04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 19:26 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 13:07 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 17:09 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Phillips R | 4:15 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 16:19 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 15:39 | −0.31 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 16:18 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 23:55 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.34 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 25:00 | +1.21 |
| Darcy Kuemper G | 39:54 | −1.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.