VGK beat SEA 3–1. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Keegan Kolesar scored at 18:40 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Logan Thompson saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:14 |  VGK | Jack Eichel from Jonathan Marchessault, Brayden McNabb | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 13:29 | SEA | Jaden SchwartzPP from Ryker Evans, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 1–1 | 15% → 49% |
| P3 18:40 | VGK | Keegan Kolesar from Brett Howden, Nicolas Roy | 1–2 | 50% → 96% |
| P3 19:48 | VGK | Chandler StephensonEN from Brayden McNabb | 1–3 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Schwartz C | 12:29 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.11 | +0.67 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 16:50 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 21:21 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:20 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 17:16 | −0.04 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 13:17 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 10:20 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 12:53 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 13:59 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 15:35 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 9:34 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 21:12 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 9:51 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 20:10 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 26:04 | −0.40 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 20:35 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:09 | −0.49 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 14:39 | −0.69 | +0.10 | −0.64 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 59:18 | +1.00 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:01 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.07 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 24:03 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.06 | +0.23 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Brett Howden C | 12:55 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 15:12 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:08 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 9:29 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 8:59 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 13:50 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 16:45 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:01 | 2 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 15:37 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:42 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:53 | −0.11 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 22:02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:18 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 20:06 | −0.25 | +0.13 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 20:51 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 60:00 | +1.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.