DET beat NYI 6–3. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andrew Copp scored at 16:00 of the second, moving DET’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 11:15 | DET | Christian Fischer from Michael Rasmussen, Moritz Seider | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:25 |  NYI | Mike Reilly from Kyle MacLean, Casey Cizikas | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 16:00 | DET | Andrew Copp from Christian Fischer, Ben Chiarot | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:08 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Alex DeBrincat | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 5:12 | DET | Andrew Copp from Christian Fischer, Michael Rasmussen | 1–4 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 6:22 | DET | Patrick Kane from Alex DeBrincat, Shayne Gostisbehere | 1–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 9:34 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel PageauPP from Ryan Pulock, Pierre Engvall | 2–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 11:20 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Adam Pelech, Anders Lee | 3–5 | 0% → 3% |
| P3 16:15 | DET | Dylan LarkinEN from Lucas Raymond | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reilly D | 18:36 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.05 | +0.92 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:53 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.03 | +0.53 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 20:53 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.03 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:48 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 26:24 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 13:58 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 10:41 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 21:25 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 16:00 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 13:43 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 15:26 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:07 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 9:57 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:19 | −0.26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:38 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.25 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 18:15 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 13:36 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 18:26 | −0.45 | −0.08 | −0.58 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 58:34 | −2.57 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Copp C | 16:18 | 2 | +1.46 | +0.06 | +1.42 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 15:44 | 1 | 2 | +0.64 | +0.10 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Patrick Kane R | 15:19 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.58 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 16:32 | 2 | +0.54 | +0.04 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 15:19 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 20:42 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:25 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 19:40 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:02 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Czarnik C | 8:12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 14:45 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 19:56 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 12:37 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 19:46 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 9:58 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 16:12 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 17:55 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:04 | 2 | −0.50 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | +0.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.