COL beat EDM 3–2 in overtime. COL also won the expected-goals battle 5.1 to 3.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen scored at 4:59 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Stuart Skinner saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:39 | COL | Sean Walker from Artturi Lehkonen, Jack Johnson | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 5:46 |  EDM | Warren Foegele from Evan Bouchard | 1–1 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 11:48 | EDM | Sam Carrick from Mattias Janmark, Corey Perry | 1–2 | 52% → 85% |
| P3 14:40 | COL | Sean Walker from Casey Mittelstadt, Jonathan Drouin | 2–2 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 4:59 | COL | Artturi Lehkonen from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Walker D | 18:44 | 2 | +1.99 | +0.67 | +1.35 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 17:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.28 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Devon Toews D | 26:36 | +0.36 | +0.41 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 15:12 | +0.26 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 18:14 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 13:55 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 16:58 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.50 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:05 | +0.12 | +0.20 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 27:31 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.19 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 9:12 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 21:02 | −0.32 | −0.22 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:43 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.29 | −0.70 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Miles Wood L | 11:49 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 9:49 | −0.42 | −0.10 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 23:39 | −0.46 | +0.09 | −0.59 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 10:44 | −0.47 | +0.12 | −0.58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 10:48 | −0.53 | −0.06 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:59 | −0.59 | +0.10 | −0.57 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 77:44 | +1.65 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carrick C | 8:37 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.08 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 14:12 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 14:13 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 12:29 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:01 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 10:02 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 9:21 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 17:34 | −0.27 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 12:08 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:59 | −0.38 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 22:26 | −0.40 | −0.22 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:09 | −0.46 | −0.44 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 15:23 | −0.50 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:53 | −0.51 | −0.09 | −0.56 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:47 | −0.58 | +0.13 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 24:04 | −0.63 | −0.17 | −0.64 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:50 | −0.64 | −0.59 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 26:49 | 1 | −0.75 | −0.08 | −0.61 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 64:59 | +2.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.