CBJ beat SJS 4–2. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Boone Jenner scored at 17:41 of the first, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Daniil Tarasov saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:41 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Johnny Gaudreau, Damon Severson | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:49 | CBJ | Alex Nylander from Ivan Provorov, Zach Werenski | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 11:48 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from Mario Ferraro, Mikael Granlund | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 15:03 | CBJ | Johnny Gaudreau from Alex Nylander, Boone Jenner | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 11:42 | SJS | Henry Thrun from Kevin Labanc | 2–3 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 18:55 | CBJ | Alex NylanderEN from Johnny Gaudreau | 2–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Thrun D | 18:17 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.12 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 20:26 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.06 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 19:37 | +0.29 | +0.30 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 17:49 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 18:37 | +0.05 | +0.17 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 17:41 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 15:42 | +0.01 | +0.32 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 10:44 | −0.01 | +0.21 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 16:44 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 12:44 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 19:31 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 14:17 | −0.09 | +0.28 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 15:57 | −0.12 | +0.14 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 19:36 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 9:41 | −0.27 | +0.11 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 18:15 | −0.40 | +0.18 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 13:34 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.13 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:57 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.04 | −0.43 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Magnus Chrona G | 58:51 | −1.18 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:18 | 1 | 2 | +0.76 | +0.04 | +0.65 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Nylander L | 16:54 | 2 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.04 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Boone Jenner C | 20:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.51 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 10:26 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 18:28 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:03 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 21:47 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 14:14 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 14:50 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 24:57 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Meyer R | 9:40 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 11:56 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 21:27 | −0.26 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 12:13 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trey Fix-Wolansky R | 12:19 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 15:31 | −0.28 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 13:45 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:24 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.12 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 59:52 | +2.17 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.