OTT beat NYI 4–3 in overtime. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk scored on the power play at 4:36 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Semyon Varlamov allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:27 | NYI | Matt Martin from Cal Clutterbuck, Kyle MacLean | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 11:46 |  OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:22 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anders Lee | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 6:35 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Tim Stützle, Artem Zub | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 12:14 | OTT | Brady TkachukPP from Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson | 3–2 | 50% → 83% |
| P3 19:22 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 4:36 | OTT | Brady TkachukPP from Shane Pinto, Tim Stützle | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:15 | 3 | +2.37 | +0.29 | +2.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 15:24 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.05 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Pinto C | 16:31 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 17:31 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 25:09 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 23:44 | 3 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Maxence Guenette D | 14:45 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 8:50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 11:22 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 18:15 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 19:35 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.26 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 16:50 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 22:24 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 9:24 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 25:05 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:54 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 12:27 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 64:33 | −0.41 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Martin L | 8:41 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.02 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:00 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.18 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 21:47 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 16:38 | +0.21 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 19:57 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 17:21 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 13:05 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 24:12 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 11:50 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:31 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:18 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:35 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:34 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:49 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 22:07 | −0.40 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:02 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.05 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 10:04 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.02 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 23:20 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.25 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 63:17 | −1.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.