PIT beat SJS 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 2.7, PIT 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: John Ludvig scored at 2:38 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Magnus Chrona allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:28 |  PIT | Noel Acciari from Erik Karlsson, Drew O'Connor | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:31 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from Calen Addison, Henry Thrun | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 19:01 | SJS | Marc-Edouard Vlasic from Klim Kostin, Mikael Granlund | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:11 | PIT | Jeff Carter from Emil Bemstrom | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 11:34 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Drew O'Connor, Lars Eller | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 18:42 | SJS | Klim Kostin from Mikael Granlund, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 3–3 | 23% → 47% |
| P3 2:38 | PIT | John Ludvig from Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Reilly Smith | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 4:38 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Pierre-Olivier Joseph, John Ludvig | 3–5 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 18:04 | PIT | Bryan RustEN from Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 20:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.13 | +0.85 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 20:08 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.17 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Klim Kostin C | 13:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.06 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:41 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.21 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 19:05 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 24:48 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:28 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 3:09 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 14:24 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 27:05 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 5:22 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 16:36 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 9:43 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 13:18 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 24:20 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 7:33 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 16:47 | −0.32 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:23 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Magnus Chrona G | 59:33 | −2.68 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noel Acciari C | 15:23 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.14 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 13:48 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.04 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Ludvig D | 14:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.08 | +0.67 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rickard Rakell R | 11:50 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.17 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 16:00 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.15 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Lars Eller C | 16:09 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 17:53 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 10:01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:11 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:29 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 9:48 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 24:08 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 15:48 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 12:39 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:43 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:50 | 2 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 18:19 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Bunting L | 17:52 | −0.51 | −0.22 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 59:46 | −0.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.