OTT beat CBJ 3–2 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 3.8, CBJ 3.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tim Stützle scored at 12:27 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 15% to 49%. Anton Forsberg saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:15 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Johnny Gaudreau, Adam Boqvist | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P3 5:21 | CBJ | Alex NylanderPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski | 0–2 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 7:25 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Boris Katchouk, Mark Kastelic | 1–2 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 12:27 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Jacob Bernard-Docker, Erik Brannstrom | 2–2 | 15% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux R | 22:14 | 1 | +2.26 | +0.49 | +0.56 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | +1.06 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 24:10 | 1 | +1.60 | +0.45 | +0.52 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.71 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:27 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 9:49 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 16:46 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Maxence Guenette D | 17:06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:23 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 25:48 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 18:50 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 8:53 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 17:56 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 8:44 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:29 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:10 | −0.26 | +0.51 | −0.63 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 18:17 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 21:13 | −0.35 | +0.41 | −0.42 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 11:03 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 14:21 | −0.49 | −0.15 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 65:00 | +1.38 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Nylander L | 20:47 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.06 | +0.29 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 21:52 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.43 | +0.84 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 19:42 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.66 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 12:08 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 13:25 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 19:25 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 1:12 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:19 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.16 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Carson Meyer R | 10:58 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trey Fix-Wolansky R | 9:56 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:47 | −0.19 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 24:20 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 11:07 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 26:39 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 19:44 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 26:06 | −0.43 | −0.40 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:45 | −0.46 | +0.10 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 9:48 | −0.49 | −0.12 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 65:00 | +0.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.