OTT beat PIT 2–1 in overtime. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Drake Batherson scored at 3:13 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Tristan Jarry saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 11:06 | OTT | Jake Sanderson from Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux | 0–1 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 19:37 |  PIT | Michael BuntingPP from Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin | 1–1 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 3:13 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bunting L | 18:34 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.10 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Ludvig D | 11:06 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 20:55 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 10:23 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 16:55 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 11:03 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 8:00 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 15:44 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:53 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 11:56 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:48 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 25:44 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 15:59 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 13:43 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:39 | −0.46 | −0.26 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 18:07 | −0.49 | −0.08 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 23:38 | −0.58 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:30 | −0.97 | −0.32 | −0.62 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 62:15 | +2.73 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Sanderson D | 23:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.55 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Drake Batherson R | 16:45 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:48 | +0.23 | +0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 21:25 | +0.14 | +0.28 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 21:33 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.27 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 23:27 | +0.05 | +0.36 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 6:35 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 20:29 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.31 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Jiri Smejkal L | 9:15 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxence Guenette D | 16:55 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 13:31 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 13:42 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 18:39 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 14:45 | −0.21 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 6:00 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 12:44 | −0.49 | −0.19 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 21:40 | −0.64 | −0.39 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 23:29 | 1 | −0.86 | +0.46 | −1.47 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 63:08 | +1.98 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.