CHI beat ARI 7–4. CHI also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tyler Johnson scored on the power play at 17:50 of the second, moving CHI’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Connor Ingram allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:09 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:11 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 5:28 | CHI | Connor Bedard from Ryan Donato, Reese Johnson | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 6:57 | CHI | Colin Blackwell from Joey Anderson, Alex Vlasic | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:05 | CHI | Connor BedardPP from Philipp Kurashev, Seth Jones | 2–3 | 58% → 74% |
| P2 13:57 | ARI | Dylan Guenther unassisted | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 17:50 | CHI | Tyler JohnsonPP from Connor Bedard, Seth Jones | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 0:33 | CHI | Colin Blackwell from Seth Jones, Jason Dickinson | 3–5 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 6:51 | ARI | Nick Schmaltz unassisted | 4–5 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 8:00 | CHI | Ryan Donato unassisted | 4–6 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 17:24 | CHI | Colin BlackwellEN from Seth Jones | 4–7 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 17:01 | 2 | +1.35 | −0.08 | +1.43 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:46 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | −0.19 | +0.66 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:19 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:27 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 20:59 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 13:16 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 9:15 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 15:32 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 9:41 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:03 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 15:24 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 20:22 | −0.29 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:48 | 2 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 12:44 | −0.36 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 18:06 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 22:43 | −0.46 | +0.03 | −0.52 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 20:46 | −0.51 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 15:54 | −0.79 | −0.11 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 59:49 | −1.89 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Blackwell C | 14:17 | 3 | +1.59 | +0.02 | +1.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 21:15 | 2 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.29 | +0.92 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Tyler Johnson C | 15:32 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.10 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 13:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.07 | +0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 11:29 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 18:13 | +0.18 | +0.21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 17:17 | +0.15 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 21:24 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.27 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 18:27 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joey Anderson R | 12:13 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reese Johnson C | 9:06 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 17:54 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Korchinski D | 18:24 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 15:01 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 20:06 | −0.12 | +0.28 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 15:29 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 23:07 | 4 | −0.14 | +0.22 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 13:11 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 60:00 | −0.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.