MIN beat NSH 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 3.0, MIN 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matt Boldy scored on the power play at 3:50 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Juuse Saros allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:16 |  MIN | Jonas Brodin from Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:00 |  NSH | Mark Jankowski from Kiefer Sherwood | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 3:36 | NSH | Luke Evangelista from Tommy Novak, Mark Jankowski | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 18:42 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 12:28 | MIN | Ryan Hartman unassisted | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 17:58 | NSH | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 3:50 | MIN | Matt BoldyPP from Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista R | 17:02 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.12 | +0.26 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 15:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.02 | +0.28 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tommy Novak C | 14:57 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.26 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Roman Josi D | 27:59 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.39 | −0.30 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:17 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 10:20 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:27 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.40 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Cole Smith L | 13:36 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 3:28 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 26:05 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 14:02 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 14:18 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:13 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 16:54 | −0.18 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 12:26 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:34 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 24:34 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:18 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 63:31 | −1.26 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy L | 22:02 | 1 | 2 | +0.97 | +0.06 | +0.65 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:10 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:34 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.03 | +0.33 | −0.11 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:13 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.08 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 22:18 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.18 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 12:34 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 21:41 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:54 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Beckman L | 12:15 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 13:47 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 16:47 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 14:40 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Mason Shaw C | 6:22 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Lucchini C | 9:27 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 26:10 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 8:48 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 21:59 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 63:29 | +0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.