SJS beat OTT 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.9, SJS 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Thomas Bordeleau scored on the power play at 14:37 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 54% to 75%. Magnus Chrona saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:24 | SJS | Thomas BordeleauPP from Fabian Zetterlund, Mikael Granlund | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 9:18 |  OTT | Tim StützlePP from Jake Sanderson, Brady Tkachuk | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:37 | SJS | Thomas BordeleauPP from Mikael Granlund, William Eklund | 1–2 | 54% → 75% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle C | 22:20 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.12 | +0.52 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 18:40 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rourke Chartier C | 11:23 | +0.10 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 21:35 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 10:45 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxence Guenette D | 11:56 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 8:08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 19:29 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 24:59 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 26:56 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jiri Smejkal L | 4:17 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 24:53 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 5:46 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 10:46 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 21:55 | −0.27 | +0.11 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 16:55 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.36 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 13:21 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 22:08 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.12 | −0.55 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 57:13 | +0.05 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 14:56 | 2 | +1.40 | +0.13 | +1.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 13:32 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 14:44 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 25:06 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 23:39 | 2 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 14:48 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 17:30 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 16:22 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 6:16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 17:27 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:20 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:19 | −0.11 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 20:52 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 18:02 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 6:41 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 18:03 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 17:15 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 10:04 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Magnus Chrona G | 59:55 | +1.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.