BUF beat EDM 3–2 in a shootout. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jacob Bryson scored at 11:39 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 18% to 52%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:29 | EDM | Ryan McLeod from Leon Draisaitl, Warren Foegele | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 14:19 | EDM | Warren FoegeleSH from Ryan McLeod | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 15:35 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP unassisted | 2–1 | 22% → 35% |
| P3 11:39 | BUF | Jacob Bryson unassisted | 2–2 | 18% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McLeod C | 17:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Warren Foegele L | 15:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.03 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:04 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.49 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.14 | +0.84 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:28 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 13:52 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 9:24 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 9:49 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 17:35 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 19:41 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 16:11 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:58 | −0.14 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 14:01 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:37 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 11:20 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:51 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 23:05 | −0.49 | −0.41 | −0.30 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.37 | +0.05 | −0.30 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:33 | −0.67 | −0.08 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:55 | −0.92 | −0.42 | −0.47 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 65:00 | −0.47 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 17:10 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.21 | +0.37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.71 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 26:53 | +0.94 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +1.06 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 13:42 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.10 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 15:33 | +0.17 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 21:34 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 28:55 | +0.12 | +0.37 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 15:06 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:03 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 14:52 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 9:15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 21:57 | −0.06 | +0.45 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 6:04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 25:46 | −0.12 | +0.27 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:03 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:40 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Rousek R | 12:58 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 14:02 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:27 | −0.73 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.17 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 65:00 | +1.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.