LAK beat OTT 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.8, LAK 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kevin Fiala scored at 2:00 of overtime, moving LAK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joonas Korpisalo allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:33 |  OTT | Dominik KubalikPP from Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 13:24 | LAK | Quinton Byfield from Blake Lizotte, Vladislav Gavrikov | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 13:39 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Shane Pinto, Drake Batherson | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 10:24 | LAK | Pierre-Luc DuboisPP from Anze Kopitar, Matt Roy | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 11:46 | LAK | Jacob Moverare from Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar | 2–3 | 52% → 85% |
| P3 15:37 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Artem Zub, Shane Pinto | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| OT 2:00 | LAK | Kevin Fiala from Matt Roy | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 18:09 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.22 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 20:59 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.19 | +0.34 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 12:06 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.06 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 12:48 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 20:37 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:57 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 7:20 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 17:42 | −0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 20:31 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.28 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ridly Greig C | 13:30 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 13:06 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 23:54 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rourke Chartier C | 11:24 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Maxence Guenette D | 12:18 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Smejkal L | 8:06 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 18:03 | −0.42 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 25:42 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 22:48 | 1 | −0.92 | −0.59 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 62:00 | −1.19 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Moverare D | 11:33 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.02 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:48 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.36 | +0.34 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinton Byfield R | 22:45 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 14:49 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.09 | +0.46 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Roy D | 26:42 | 2 | +0.30 | +0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 19:48 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 5:07 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 24:31 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 12:17 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 16:10 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 12:26 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 7:28 | −0.06 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:00 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 9:21 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:56 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 21:49 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 20:35 | −0.24 | +0.25 | −0.47 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 15:03 | −0.46 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 61:25 | −0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.