MIN beat ARI 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.4, ARI 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Joel Eriksson Ek scored at 7:16 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 48% to 77%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:51 |  MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Mats Zuccarello, Brock Faber | 1–0 | 48% → 66% |
| P3 1:21 |  ARI | Clayton KellerPP from Barrett Hayton, Nick Schmaltz | 1–1 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 1:28 | ARI | Michael Carcone from Liam O'Brien, Jack McBain | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 2:00 | MIN | Zach Bogosian from Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello | 2–2 | 22% → 49% |
| P3 7:16 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Mats Zuccarello | 3–2 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 18:48 | MIN | Brock FaberEN from Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman | 4–2 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:33 | MIN | Connor DewarEN from Jonas Brodin, Adam Beckman | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 18:58 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.13 | +0.74 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.16 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Zach Bogosian D | 18:34 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.06 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Faber D | 25:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:22 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Vinni Lettieri C | 9:32 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 14:02 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Lucchini C | 9:16 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 14:55 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 25:40 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Shaw C | 7:54 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Beckman L | 12:58 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Chisholm D | 20:20 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 17:05 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 14:28 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 18:49 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:06 | 3 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.48 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 13:18 | −0.78 | −0.11 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | +0.54 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 21:44 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.06 | +0.49 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 14:01 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.10 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 17:54 | +0.28 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 20:15 | +0.14 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 7:57 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 10:29 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:53 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.22 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 18:16 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Patrik Koch D | 9:20 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 14:18 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 19:49 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:18 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 21:47 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 23:20 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 15:19 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:34 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 16:39 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 22:10 | −0.37 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 58:48 | −0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.