DAL beat SJS 7–6 in overtime. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Roope Hintz scored at 1:49 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Kaapo Kahkonen allowed 3.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:22 | SJS | Anthony DuclairPP from Fabian Zetterlund, William Eklund | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 12:04 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from Anthony Duclair, Jan Rutta | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 18:38 |  DAL | Jamie BennPP from Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P1 19:27 | DAL | Logan StankovenPP from Miro Heiskanen, Wyatt Johnston | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:39 | SJS | Ryan Carpenter from Nico Sturm, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 8:48 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Jamie Benn, Ty Dellandrea | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 15:48 | SJS | Anthony DuclairPP from Fabian Zetterlund, Mikael Granlund | 3–4 | 54% → 75% |
| P2 17:50 | SJS | Filip Zadina from Mike Hoffman, Calen Addison | 3–5 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 3:02 | SJS | Mikael Granlund from Anthony Duclair | 3–6 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 12:58 | DAL | Logan Stankoven from Wyatt Johnston | 4–6 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 13:41 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Logan Stankoven, Jamie Benn | 5–6 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 15:42 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn | 6–6 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 1:49 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Logan Stankoven, Miro Heiskanen | 7–6 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston C | 17:44 | 3 | 2 | +2.31 | +0.24 | +2.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Logan Stankoven C | 18:03 | 2 | 2 | +2.28 | +0.41 | +1.47 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.03 |
| Roope Hintz C | 17:39 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.17 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 13:48 | 1 | 3 | +0.51 | +0.09 | +0.52 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Matt Duchene C | 16:50 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 24:36 | +0.03 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 17:34 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 13:10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 17:33 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:33 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 16:25 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 21:37 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 8:58 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 23:40 | 4 | −0.12 | +0.36 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 8:57 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 10:27 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:44 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 19:30 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 61:49 | −3.57 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair L | 19:42 | 2 | 2 | +1.66 | +0.12 | +1.34 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 9:39 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.09 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.04 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Filip Zadina R | 15:46 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.15 | +0.57 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 19:25 | 1 | 2 | +0.27 | −0.20 | +0.48 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Givani Smith R | 6:06 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 17:17 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 15:56 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 8:59 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 21:29 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 14:49 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Bailey R | 14:46 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 22:12 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:01 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 16:43 | −0.28 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 19:56 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:50 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:28 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 61:49 | −3.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.