MTL beat NSH 4–3 in overtime. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored at 0:17 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Juuse Saros allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:24 |  NSH | Filip Forsberg from Luke Evangelista, Ryan O'Reilly | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:11 | NSH | Gustav Nyquist from Filip Forsberg, Ryan O'Reilly | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 16:39 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Jake Evans, Josh Anderson | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P2 16:45 | MTL | David Savard from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 12:19 | NSH | Ryan O'Reilly from Gustav Nyquist, Jeremy Lauzon | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 14:55 | MTL | Joshua Roy unassisted | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 0:17 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Cole Caufield, Mike Matheson | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Savard D | 19:41 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.01 | +0.92 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Roy R | 14:04 | 1 | +0.90 | −0.00 | +0.90 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.21 | +0.88 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:44 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.04 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 11:21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:09 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 10:43 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 20:20 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 14:27 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:06 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 27:02 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 16:11 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 17:19 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 18:32 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 11:48 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 17:56 | −0.41 | −0.22 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:21 | −0.43 | −0.10 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:47 | 2 | −0.81 | −0.14 | −0.64 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:17 | −0.23 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:49 | 1 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.34 | +0.76 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.33 | +0.53 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.68 | +0.29 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:46 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 24:57 | +0.09 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 15:18 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:17 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:02 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 22:14 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:13 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:49 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 14:04 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:26 | −0.19 | +0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 13:51 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:41 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 11:30 | −0.40 | −0.09 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:39 | −0.56 | +0.03 | −0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:17 | −1.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.