PIT beat CBJ 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (CBJ 3.0, PIT 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jack Roslovic scored short-handed at 8:04 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 18% to 47%. Jet Greaves allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:33 | PIT | Jesse Puljujarvi from Ryan Graves | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:57 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Reilly Smith, Ryan Graves | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 4:31 | CBJ | Johnny Gaudreau from Jack Roslovic, Zach Werenski | 1–2 | 13% → 28% |
| P2 5:28 | CBJ | Andrew Peeke from Jake Bean, Alexandre Texier | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:32 | PIT | Rickard RakellPP unassisted | 2–3 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 8:04 | CBJ | Jack RoslovicSH from Andrew Peeke | 3–3 | 18% → 47% |
| P3 8:26 | PIT | Jeff CarterPP from Emil Bemstrom, Reilly Smith | 3–4 | 53% → 82% |
| P3 9:53 | PIT | Reilly Smith from Evgeni Malkin | 3–5 | 83% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 22:34 | 1 | +1.23 | +0.23 | +0.71 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 13:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.14 | +0.86 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Roslovic C | 20:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.10 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Zach Werenski D | 23:52 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 13:03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 20:38 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 11:38 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Nylander L | 15:19 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 18:38 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 17:01 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:50 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:21 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 17:16 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 16:21 | −0.23 | +0.21 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 13:26 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:23 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 13:12 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.40 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:59 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 58:43 | −1.58 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Carter C | 12:47 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 10:20 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 16:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.72 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Reilly Smith R | 16:59 | 1 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.06 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rickard Rakell R | 21:00 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.56 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 17:17 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joona Koppanen L | 8:58 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:11 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 24:58 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 14:02 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 9:07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 19:43 | −0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:31 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Jonathan Gruden L | 10:20 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 20:44 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 24:03 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 16:25 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 12:33 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:00 | +0.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.