STL beat PHI 2–1 in a shootout. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kevin Hayes scored at 15:47 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 25% to 47%. Jordan Binnington saved 3.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:52 | PHI | Scott Laughton from Ryan Poehling, Travis Sanheim | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 15:47 | STL | Kevin Hayes from Kasperi Kapanen | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Neighbours L | 17:29 | +0.64 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.84 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 11:39 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.14 | +0.41 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 22:34 | +0.44 | −0.02 | −0.63 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 8:19 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 24:41 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 11:35 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 9:41 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 7:27 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 8:30 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:31 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 24:58 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 23:43 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 12:44 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 27:41 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 25:20 | −0.47 | −0.40 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 24:03 | −0.49 | −0.23 | −0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.30 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 19:39 | −0.67 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:26 | −0.81 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 65:00 | +3.81 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Laughton C | 21:37 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.05 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 14:41 | +0.63 | +0.43 | −0.57 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.75 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:51 | +0.20 | +0.32 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 15:30 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 14:48 | +0.05 | +0.28 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 10:47 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 14:35 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 10:18 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 22:25 | −0.09 | +0.21 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 16:57 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 17:33 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olle Lycksell R | 6:58 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 25:45 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 12:07 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.30 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 27:25 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.02 | −0.45 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 17:49 | −0.49 | +0.16 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 19:52 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.06 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 22:07 | −0.75 | +0.41 | −1.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.35 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 64:55 | −0.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.