CBJ beat VGK 6–3. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Erik Gudbranson scored at 17:21 of the second, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Adin Hill allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:16 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from Sean Kuraly, Zach Werenski | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:11 | CBJ | Alex Nylander from Alexandre Texier, Ivan Provorov | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 17:19 | VGK | Mason Morelli from Byron Froese | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P1 18:01 | VGK | William Karlsson from Chandler Stephenson, Nicolas Hague | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 17:21 | CBJ | Erik Gudbranson from Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 3:23 | CBJ | Alex Nylander from Cole Sillinger | 2–4 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 10:16 | VGK | Chandler Stephenson from Shea Theodore, Michael Amadio | 3–4 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 11:20 | CBJ | Egor Chinakhov from Kirill Marchenko, Jake Bean | 3–5 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 18:49 | CBJ | Alex NylanderEN from Alexandre Texier | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Morelli L | 8:39 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.06 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| William Karlsson C | 20:41 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.04 | +0.53 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Grigori Denisenko L | 12:23 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 19:12 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Byron Froese C | 9:48 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:44 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:59 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 17:22 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 21:51 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 13:01 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:09 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 18:53 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:24 | −0.34 | +0.06 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:24 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 16:01 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 16:55 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 19:55 | −0.46 | −0.14 | −0.34 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 58:23 | −1.85 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Nylander L | 16:08 | 3 | +1.43 | −0.04 | +1.49 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:15 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.04 | +0.88 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 18:26 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.10 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 10:47 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.07 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 23:20 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 12:48 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:55 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 15:33 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 19:53 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 13:20 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 19:32 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 18:32 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 20:23 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:30 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 10:35 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:26 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 21:04 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 11:38 | −0.44 | +0.07 | −0.49 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 59:55 | +0.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.