WPG beat BUF 5–2. Expected goals were close to even (WPG 2.2, BUF 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Morgan Barron scored at 13:55 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 49% to 85%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:33 |  BUF | JJ PeterkaPP from Kyle Okposo, Jeff Skinner | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 19:54 |  WPG | Nino Niederreiter from Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 9:20 | BUF | Eric Robinson from Peyton Krebs, Zemgus Girgensons | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 10:38 | WPG | Josh Morrissey from Mark Scheifele, Vladislav Namestnikov | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 13:55 | WPG | Morgan Barron from Cole Perfetti | 3–2 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 18:39 | WPG | Vladislav NamestnikovEN from Kyle Connor | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 19:06 | WPG | Sean MonahanEN from Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Barron C | 11:46 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.12 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:57 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.07 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 25:16 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:20 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Samberg D | 15:24 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 11:20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 14:49 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 8:13 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 16:05 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 15:48 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 19:57 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:47 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 11:50 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 18:32 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 59:49 | −0.12 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Robinson L | 10:58 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.06 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 14:44 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 11:35 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 14:53 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johnson D | 10:20 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 14:32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 15:31 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 12:22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 26:16 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:24 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 19:50 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:01 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 23:20 | −0.23 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 14:12 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 17:22 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 20:15 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 13:59 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:57 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:29 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.