CGY beat PIT 4–3. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Yegor Sharangovich scored at 19:10 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 96%. Tristan Jarry allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:42 | PIT | Jonathan Gruden unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 19:26 | PIT | Lars EllerPP from Valtteri Puustinen, Sidney Crosby | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 3:37 |  CGY | Yegor Sharangovich unassisted | 2–1 | 18% → 34% |
| P3 2:51 | PIT | Jeff Carter from Ryan Graves, Noel Acciari | 3–1 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 10:09 | CGY | Nazem KadriPP from MacKenzie Weegar, Noah Hanifin | 3–2 | 4% → 20% |
| P3 10:41 | CGY | Blake Coleman from Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund | 3–3 | 19% → 52% |
| P3 19:10 | CGY | Yegor Sharangovich from Mikael Backlund | 3–4 | 52% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Gruden L | 9:35 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.03 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 12:15 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.04 | +0.59 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Lars Eller C | 15:16 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.01 | +0.71 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 13:02 | +0.14 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 16:10 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 8:55 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:23 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.10 | |
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 16:12 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 15:35 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:40 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:59 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:28 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 10:30 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 12:00 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 16:27 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 24:25 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:15 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:18 | −0.85 | −0.03 | −0.62 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 59:15 | −2.01 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:49 | 2 | +1.37 | −0.12 | +1.53 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 17:34 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.12 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:27 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.07 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:21 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.25 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.12 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 8:59 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 9:16 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 22:34 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:33 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 19:17 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.20 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 26:40 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 13:38 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 20:31 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 10:08 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 9:13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:50 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 9:38 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 11:02 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:17 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | −0.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.