STL beat MIN 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.3, STL 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jake Neighbours scored on the power play at 12:53 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 54% to 75%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:34 | STL | Alexey Toropchenko from Scott Perunovich, Brandon Saad | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 10:06 |  MIN | Jon Merrill unassisted | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 12:53 | STL | Jake NeighboursPP from Robert Thomas, Torey Krug | 1–2 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 19:11 | STL | Torey KrugEN from Justin Faulk | 1–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Merrill D | 13:30 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.44 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:27 | +0.21 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:16 | +0.16 | +0.15 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 20:48 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 18:33 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 19:40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 2:47 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 26:41 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:14 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 14:19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Shaw C | 7:12 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 17:37 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 13:59 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 16:22 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:07 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 15:16 | −0.18 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 9:07 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Lucchini C | 7:48 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 58:42 | +0.31 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Perunovich D | 13:34 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 9:30 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.05 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 10:31 | +0.22 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 18:18 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.07 | +0.33 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 12:08 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 24:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marco Scandella D | 10:43 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 14:16 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 17:37 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 20:39 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 13:19 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 8:10 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:55 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:05 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 22:45 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:18 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 22:19 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:07 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | +0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.