NYI beat DET 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.4, DET 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mathew Barzal scored at 13:58 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 49% to 85%. Alex Lyon allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:11 | NYI | Brock Nelson unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:18 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Adam Pelech, Noah Dobson | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 5:04 |  DET | Olli Maatta from David Perron, Joe Veleno | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P3 0:10 | DET | Patrick Kane from Dylan Larkin, Jeff Petry | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 5:04 | NYI | Brock NelsonPP from Mathew Barzal, Kyle Palmieri | 3–2 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 10:49 | DET | Olli Maatta from Shayne Gostisbehere, Daniel Sprong | 3–3 | 19% → 52% |
| P3 13:58 | NYI | Mathew Barzal unassisted | 4–3 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 19:24 | NYI | Pierre EngvallEN from Simon Holmstrom, Casey Cizikas | 5–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Nelson C | 17:54 | 2 | +1.61 | +0.14 | +1.49 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.11 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.13 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Kyle MacLean C | 10:18 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:05 | +0.14 | +0.10 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.11 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 17:24 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 14:55 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 24:11 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:58 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 16:37 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:44 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:29 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 10:05 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 14:24 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:01 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 13:53 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:00 | −0.75 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olli Maatta D | 20:14 | 2 | +1.77 | +0.01 | +1.76 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 20:49 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.70 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 16:49 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:04 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 9:20 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 14:08 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 15:05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:19 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 9:24 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 23:02 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 20:58 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 14:30 | −0.13 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:15 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:16 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:40 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.26 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 21:07 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 4:34 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| David Perron L | 12:58 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.11 | −0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 58:58 | −1.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.