BOS beat VGK 5–4. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mason Lohrei scored on the power play at 15:23 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 52% to 89%. Adin Hill allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:34 | BOS | Morgan Geekie from Trent Frederic | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 15:04 | BOS | Jesper Boqvist from Jakub Lauko, Kevin Shattenkirk | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 16:54 | BOS | Morgan Geekie from David Pastrnak, Danton Heinen | 0–3 | 85% → 93% |
| P2 1:48 |  VGK | Paul Cotter from Nicolas Roy, Shea Theodore | 1–3 | 6% → 14% |
| P2 6:57 | VGK | Alex Pietrangelo from Jonathan Marchessault, Brendan Brisson | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 16:32 | BOS | Morgan Geekie from David Pastrnak, Matt Grzelcyk | 2–4 | 76% → 91% |
| P2 17:46 | VGK | Michael Amadio from Chandler Stephenson, Brayden McNabb | 3–4 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 5:01 | VGK | Chandler StephensonSH from Zach Whitecloud | 4–4 | 20% → 47% |
| P3 15:23 | BOS | Mason LohreiPP from Kevin Shattenkirk, Charlie Coyle | 4–5 | 52% → 89% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.03 | +0.52 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Paul Cotter C | 12:03 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 22:00 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 19:27 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:33 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:15 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:53 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:43 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 22:47 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 15:22 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 14:01 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 20:21 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Morelli L | 10:18 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brendan Brisson C | 15:36 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Byron Froese C | 11:41 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:23 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 19:18 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Sheldon Rempal R | 9:30 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 58:09 | −1.83 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Geekie C | 14:32 | 3 | +0.99 | −0.09 | +1.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 16:58 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.20 | +0.39 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 9:47 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.05 | +0.34 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 14:30 | 2 | +0.35 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 20:31 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 11:20 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 10:35 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 12:24 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 21:52 | 2 | +0.10 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.38 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Brazeau R | 11:33 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 26:45 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:45 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 18:16 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:11 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 13:43 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 18:41 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:58 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 20:39 | −0.42 | −0.08 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | −0.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.