VGK beat TOR 6–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ivan Barbashev scored at 9:11 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Ilya Samsonov allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:11 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Michael Amadio, Shea Theodore | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 12:20 | VGK | Mason Morelli from Shea Theodore, Sheldon Rempal | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 17:45 | TOR | Tyler Bertuzzi from Jake McCabe, William Nylander | 2–1 | 12% → 29% |
| P2 19:09 | VGK | William Karlsson from Jonathan Marchessault | 3–1 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 10:50 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from William Karlsson | 4–1 | 96% → 99% |
| P3 14:35 | TOR | Ryan Reaves from Pontus Holmberg | 4–2 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 18:23 | VGK | Jonathan MarchessaultEN from Alex Pietrangelo | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:29 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Morelli L | 10:17 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.10 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:21 | 2 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.04 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:56 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:44 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| William Karlsson C | 19:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.05 | +0.52 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Nicolas Hague D | 16:11 | +0.21 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 18:04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 16:01 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:26 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Byron Froese C | 10:52 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 14:49 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:54 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Brisson C | 14:47 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 22:01 | 3 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:29 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:46 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Sheldon Rempal R | 10:39 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 18:41 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | +0.69 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:43 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.05 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 18:04 | +0.34 | +0.24 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 14:51 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.01 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Lagesson D | 16:10 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 12:30 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 21:44 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 21:31 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 12:18 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:02 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 14:45 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| David Kampf C | 13:14 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.25 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 19:13 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 19:31 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:45 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 20:01 | −0.39 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:39 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.18 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 13:12 | −0.56 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 59:27 | −1.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.