NYI beat DAL 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 3.1, DAL 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Bo Horvat scored at 2:54 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ilya Sorokin saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:59 | NYI | Ryan Pulock from Simon Holmstrom, Casey Cizikas | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 7:11 |  DAL | Matt DuchenePP from Thomas Harley, Logan Stankoven | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 15:24 | NYI | Kyle MacLean from Pierre Engvall, Ryan Pulock | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 18:17 | DAL | Logan Stankoven from Wyatt Johnston | 2–2 | 28% → 53% |
| OT 2:54 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Mathew Barzal, Mike Reilly | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle MacLean C | 7:27 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.10 | +0.83 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.20 | +0.84 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Sebastian Aho D | 16:06 | +0.30 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 17:15 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 12:59 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 25:07 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 8:30 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 26:05 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 14:44 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:11 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 20:00 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 8:12 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:31 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:37 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 16:20 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 22:28 | −0.39 | −0.14 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 25:17 | 1 | −0.65 | −0.18 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 62:54 | +1.08 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 16:30 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.10 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.18 | +0.65 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Suter D | 22:50 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 24:36 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 18:00 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 18:54 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:37 | −0.02 | +0.39 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 12:26 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:32 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 9:04 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 10:52 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 15:21 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 16:13 | −0.10 | +0.18 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Derrick Pouliot D | 11:01 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 26:56 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 13:55 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 15:03 | −0.45 | −0.13 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 13:44 | −0.59 | +0.10 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 62:54 | −0.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.