WSH beat OTT 6–3. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Max Pacioretty scored on the power play at 18:33 of the first, moving WSH’s win probability from 54% to 71%. Joonas Korpisalo allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:30 | WSH | Aliaksei Protas from Anthony Mantha, Connor McMichael | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 8:30 | WSH | John CarlsonPP from Dylan Strome | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 10:12 |  OTT | Drake Batherson from Brady Tkachuk, Shane Pinto | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P1 12:41 | OTT | Shane Pinto from Travis Hamonic, Brady Tkachuk | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:33 | WSH | Max PaciorettyPP from Michael Sgarbossa, Connor McMichael | 2–3 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 18:47 | WSH | Beck Malenstyn from Aliaksei Protas, Nicolas Aube-Kubel | 2–4 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 1:27 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Vladimir Tarasenko, Shane Pinto | 3–4 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 1:58 | WSH | Hendrix Lapierre from Beck Malenstyn, Ethan Bear | 3–5 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 10:55 | WSH | Hendrix Lapierre from Anthony Mantha, Aliaksei Protas | 3–6 | 89% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Pinto C | 16:12 | 1 | 2 | +0.86 | +0.06 | +0.84 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.06 | +0.63 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Drake Batherson R | 13:34 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.03 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 18:52 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 10:29 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 12:59 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 19:55 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 9:27 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 12:32 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 24:46 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 14:51 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 20:20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 15:43 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 20:34 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 17:48 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:03 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Joseph R | 16:51 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 18:32 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 40:00 | −1.08 |
| Anton Forsberg G | 20:00 | −2.77 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 11:02 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.06 | +1.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| John Carlson D | 23:53 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.07 | +0.86 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 16:01 | 1 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.05 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Max Pacioretty L | 13:46 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.09 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 15:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.07 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ethan Bear D | 15:24 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:30 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 13:11 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 15:52 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 16:58 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 17:37 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 22:18 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 19:27 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 16:37 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 16:38 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 15:14 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 17:59 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierrick Dube R | 12:25 | −0.38 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:00 | −0.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.