CBJ beat NYR 4–2. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 3.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jack Roslovic scored at 11:57 of the second, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Elvis Merzlikins saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:34 | CBJ | Dmitri VoronkovPP from Kirill Marchenko, Damon Severson | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 14:22 | NYR | Artemi Panarin from Adam Fox | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 0:18 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Dmitri Voronkov, Egor Chinakhov | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 11:11 | NYR | Adam Edstrom from Matt Rempe | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 11:57 | CBJ | Jack Roslovic from Johnny Gaudreau | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 18:35 | CBJ | Ivan Provorov from Jack Roslovic, Johnny Gaudreau | 2–4 | 76% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Edstrom C | 7:56 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.09 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:39 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.12 | +0.70 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 12:04 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 13:16 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 10:01 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 24:02 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 27:06 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 17:24 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 12:53 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Rempe C | 4:58 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 10:34 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 21:27 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 16:04 | −0.28 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 16:34 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 16:55 | −0.52 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 23:58 | −0.53 | +0.14 | −0.73 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 23:11 | −0.65 | −0.18 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 20:36 | −0.66 | −0.19 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 56:45 | +0.28 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 15:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.25 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Ivan Provorov D | 20:05 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 21:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.11 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:48 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.26 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 14:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.27 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 20:31 | 2 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 12:02 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Nylander L | 11:23 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 17:40 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 8:20 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 23:16 | −0.06 | +0.24 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 9:27 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:02 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 19:33 | −0.13 | +0.23 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:10 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 13:39 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 19:40 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 23:56 | −0.65 | −0.09 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 59:42 | +1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.