PIT beat PHI 7–6. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Drew O'Connor scored at 6:41 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Cal Petersen allowed 4.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:11 | PHI | Scott Laughton from Olle Lycksell, Travis Sanheim | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 9:38 |  PIT | Sidney Crosby from Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 17:15 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Marcus Pettersson, Sidney Crosby | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:55 | PHI | Tyson Foerster from Owen Tippett, Sean Walker | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 11:15 | PIT | Bryan RustPP from Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 13:38 | PIT | Emil BemstromPP from Reilly Smith, Kris Letang | 2–4 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 16:33 | PHI | Travis Sanheim from Sean Couturier | 3–4 | 9% → 24% |
| P2 17:36 | PHI | Scott LaughtonSH from Noah Cates, Cam York | 4–4 | 23% → 47% |
| P3 6:41 | PIT | Drew O'Connor from Evgeni Malkin, Valtteri Puustinen | 4–5 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 8:38 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson | 4–6 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 10:10 | PHI | Cam York from Olle Lycksell, Tyson Foerster | 5–6 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 15:13 | PIT | Kris Letang unassisted | 5–7 | 89% → 99% |
| P3 17:57 | PHI | Tyson FoersterPP from Sean Couturier, Scott Laughton | 6–7 | 0% → 6% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Laughton C | 20:50 | 2 | 1 | +1.22 | −0.06 | +1.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Tyson Foerster R | 19:25 | 2 | 1 | +1.03 | −0.31 | +1.25 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cam York D | 23:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.08 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Olle Lycksell R | 12:44 | 2 | +0.32 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 17:27 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 22:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.46 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Sean Couturier C | 15:03 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.10 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Marc Staal D | 16:18 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 16:49 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 10:08 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 23:14 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 7:47 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 14:43 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 18:53 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 10:39 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 19:02 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.32 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 14:12 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 12:12 | −0.45 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Petersen G | 56:56 | −4.19 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:40 | 1 | 3 | +0.83 | +0.04 | +0.32 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bryan Rust R | 14:57 | 2 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.62 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kris Letang D | 22:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.23 | +0.43 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.05 | +0.37 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:51 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.31 | +0.30 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 25:08 | 2 | +0.38 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.32 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 15:12 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 10:12 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 15:31 | +0.26 | +0.29 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 13:59 | +0.23 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 10:03 | +0.21 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 12:39 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 13:15 | +0.18 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:36 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.26 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 14:12 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Lars Eller C | 16:58 | +0.13 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 16:22 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 14:48 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:00 | −4.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.