FLA beat WSH 3–2 in overtime. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gustav Forsling scored at 3:41 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:03 |  FLA | Nick Cousins from Dmitry Kulikov, Brandon Montour | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 18:31 | WSH | Sonny MilanoPP from Rasmus Sandin, Max Pacioretty | 1–1 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 10:11 | WSH | Tom WilsonPP from Dylan Strome, John Carlson | 2–1 | 50% → 80% |
| P3 16:30 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour | 2–2 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 3:41 | FLA | Gustav Forsling from Sam Bennett | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Wilson R | 23:55 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.37 | −0.02 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 14:19 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.05 | +0.42 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 23:42 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 13:27 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 17:57 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 10:47 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 14:49 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 22:01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierrick Dube R | 4:33 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 29:21 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 16:16 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 16:12 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 17:39 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 15:45 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 19:39 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 13:29 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:06 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 12:43 | −0.40 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 63:16 | −0.36 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cousins C | 13:01 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.13 | +0.22 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 19:42 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.39 | −0.22 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:13 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.00 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 21:12 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.09 | +0.44 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:13 | +0.21 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 20:57 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.31 | −0.34 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:50 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 6:11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 18:39 | −0.05 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 5:16 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:58 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 24:41 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 18:46 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:40 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:34 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lockwood R | 5:36 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:01 | −0.42 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 63:41 | +0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.