NYR beat PHI 2–1. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matt Rempe scored at 6:31 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Igor Shesterkin saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 11:56 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Vincent Trocheck, K'Andre Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 2:36 |  PHI | Tyson Foerster from Scott Laughton, Travis Sanheim | 1–1 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 6:31 | NYR | Matt Rempe from Barclay Goodrow, Braden Schneider | 2–1 | 48% → 77% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rempe C | 5:16 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.11 | +0.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 19:00 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 23:59 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Edstrom C | 6:17 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 19:30 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:21 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:09 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 9:51 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 14:05 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 11:55 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:34 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 13:35 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 11:42 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 26:36 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:17 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 18:59 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 15:29 | −0.40 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:25 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +2.50 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster R | 21:01 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.20 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 21:07 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.26 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Drysdale D | 19:07 | +0.19 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 16:39 | +0.14 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 11:37 | +0.14 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 20:48 | +0.11 | +0.18 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 12:48 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 13:20 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam York D | 19:39 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 13:55 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 12:27 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 14:08 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 6:28 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 16:36 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 15:08 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 16:03 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 18:53 | −0.42 | +0.20 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 22:39 | −0.53 | +0.11 | −0.63 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 57:37 | −0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.