BUF beat CBJ 2–1. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor Clifton scored at 3:05 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 74%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:05 | CBJ | Dmitri VoronkovPP from Kirill Marchenko, Ivan Provorov | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 16:16 | BUF | Zemgus Girgensons from Kyle Okposo, Kale Clague | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 3:05 | BUF | Connor Clifton from Jacob Bryson, Zach Benson | 2–1 | 48% → 74% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Clifton D | 20:03 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.06 | +0.87 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 11:02 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.09 | +0.92 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 18:36 | +0.30 | +0.22 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 25:07 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 20:18 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 17:03 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 10:51 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johnson D | 10:41 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 19:24 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 29:54 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 12:59 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.31 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Zach Benson L | 13:15 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 14:38 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 8:31 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 15:46 | −0.20 | +0.31 | −0.52 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 17:14 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:06 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 13:03 | −0.54 | +0.03 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:54 | +1.68 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 14:13 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.27 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 19:15 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 11:53 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:49 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 9:57 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 18:10 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 10:08 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:48 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.17 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 20:22 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 10:53 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 14:18 | −0.23 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:01 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 17:53 | −0.26 | +0.22 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:18 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:36 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 24:10 | −0.39 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 21:43 | −0.74 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 16:03 | −0.83 | −0.23 | −0.58 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 56:30 | +1.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.