CAR beat FLA 1–0. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sebastian Aho scored at 19:41 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Pyotr Kochetkov saved 4.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 19:41 |  CAR | Sebastian Aho from Andrei Svechnikov, Jesper Fast | 0–1 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:38 | +0.28 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 15:47 | +0.16 | +0.11 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:20 | +0.16 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 5:39 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:25 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 9:09 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 17:33 | −0.03 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:26 | −0.05 | +0.37 | −0.51 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 9:45 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 4:52 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:45 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 14:23 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 19:24 | −0.31 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 28:45 | −0.33 | +0.33 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 15:10 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 20:30 | −0.41 | +0.23 | −0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 21:08 | −0.49 | +0.37 | −0.87 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:40 | −0.85 | +0.34 | −1.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 59:41 | +1.69 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:12 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.11 | +0.36 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 20:50 | +0.32 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:34 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 14:45 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 18:09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:37 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:21 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 13:43 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:55 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 11:32 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 14:49 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 8:44 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:40 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:15 | −0.36 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 22:28 | −0.38 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:09 | −0.41 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 15:13 | −0.55 | −0.04 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 13:07 | −0.92 | −0.25 | −0.45 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 59:57 | +4.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.