TOR beat ARI 6–3. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: William Nylander scored at 2:00 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 73% to 91%. Karel Vejmelka allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:56 | TOR | Bobby McMann from TJ Brodie, Timothy Liljegren | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:01 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Timothy Liljegren, Mitch Marner | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 15:27 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Mitch Marner, John Tavares | 3–0 | 83% → 92% |
| P2 4:28 |  ARI | Matias Maccelli from Nick Bjugstad | 3–1 | 6% → 18% |
| P2 5:38 | ARI | Barrett Hayton from Alexander Kerfoot, Joshua Brown | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 16:07 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Mitch Marner | 4–2 | 71% → 87% |
| P2 19:53 | ARI | Dylan GuentherPP from Clayton Keller, Sean Durzi | 4–3 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 2:00 | TOR | William Nylander from TJ Brodie | 5–3 | 73% → 91% |
| P3 8:24 | TOR | John Tavares from Nicholas Robertson, Bobby McMann | 6–3 | 94% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 18:43 | 3 | +0.75 | +0.16 | −0.12 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 19:34 | 2 | +0.74 | +0.13 | +0.73 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 21:27 | 2 | +0.41 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 11:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.13 | +0.40 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| William Nylander R | 19:46 | 2 | +0.30 | +0.05 | +0.56 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Max Domi C | 15:19 | +0.29 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.04 | +0.29 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 11:22 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 22:37 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 18:38 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 14:13 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marshall Rifai D | 11:46 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:14 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxime Lajoie D | 16:42 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 12:41 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:39 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 10:51 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 11:43 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 59:39 | −0.36 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Durzi D | 22:57 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.56 | +0.00 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 13:43 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.02 | +0.43 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 15:40 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.09 | +0.25 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:39 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.36 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 10:47 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:54 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:26 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 20:16 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 20:12 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:57 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:46 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 12:04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:01 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 9:35 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 17:18 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 12:27 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 24:43 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 9:14 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −2.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.