WSH beat NJD 6–2. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Connor McMichael scored at 4:17 of the second, moving WSH’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Nico Daws allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:39 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Aliaksei Protas, Rasmus Sandin | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:06 |  NJD | Alexander Holtz from Simon Nemec | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:17 | WSH | Connor McMichael unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 4:10 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Alex Ovechkin, Sonny Milano | 1–3 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 8:44 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Dylan Strome | 1–4 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 12:27 | WSH | Michael Sgarbossa from John Carlson, Max Pacioretty | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:34 | NJD | Erik Haula from Tyler Toffoli, Brendan Smith | 2–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 19:27 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Dylan Strome, T.J. Oshie | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 19:09 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.03 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 14:07 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.05 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 11:19 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 19:48 | +0.17 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 7:51 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 18:46 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 24:59 | +0.12 | +0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 18:26 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 16:16 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:31 | −0.09 | +0.29 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:48 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:50 | −0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 7:12 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 15:29 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 18:36 | −0.21 | +0.32 | −0.64 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 21:44 | −0.25 | +0.26 | −0.55 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:48 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.28 | −0.63 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 14:46 | −0.36 | +0.10 | −0.50 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Daws G | 59:47 | −3.03 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McMichael L | 17:20 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.02 | +1.51 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:59 | 2 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.14 | +1.10 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Strome C | 16:12 | 1 | 2 | +0.46 | −0.09 | +0.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 15:46 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.05 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 12:54 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 23:19 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 13:17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 15:07 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:11 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 16:19 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 6:20 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 21:38 | −0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 14:49 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ethan Bear D | 12:12 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:32 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Pacioretty L | 13:59 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 16:04 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 18:02 | −0.49 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | +1.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.