NYI beat PIT 5–4 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Pelech scored at 0:57 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Alex Nedeljkovic allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:48 | PIT | Marcus Pettersson from Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:40 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:37 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Ilya Sorokin | 2–1 | 46% → 67% |
| P2 13:15 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom unassisted | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 16:35 | PIT | Lars Eller from Chad Ruhwedel, Ryan Graves | 3–2 | 12% → 30% |
| P3 10:42 | NYI | Mike Reilly from Brock Nelson, Anders Lee | 4–2 | 81% → 96% |
| P3 12:06 | PIT | Valtteri Puustinen from Kris Letang, Reilly Smith | 4–3 | 3% → 18% |
| P3 13:02 | PIT | Drew O'Connor from Evgeni Malkin | 4–4 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 0:57 | NYI | Adam Pelech from Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Pelech D | 23:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.09 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.13 | +0.75 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 11:48 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.11 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 15:22 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.27 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:34 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:45 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 11:01 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 18:43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 19:17 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 18:34 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:37 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:52 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 7:07 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 9:15 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 8:31 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 20:10 | 1 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Scott Mayfield D | 18:14 | −0.46 | −0.43 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 24:07 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.15 | −0.49 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:57 | −0.25 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller C | 18:49 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.06 | +0.76 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 23:41 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.12 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:31 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.08 | +0.61 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 12:43 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.10 | +0.37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 5:59 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:29 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 14:45 | +0.09 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:22 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.27 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 11:25 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:01 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:42 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.15 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 16:19 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.14 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 13:45 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Colin White C | 8:18 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Phillips R | 13:00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 14:53 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 19:29 | −0.21 | +0.23 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:40 | −0.55 | +0.05 | −0.73 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 60:57 | −1.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.