FLA beat OTT 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 3.1, FLA 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Anton Lundell scored at 1:36 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Sergei Bobrovsky saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:19 |  FLA | Aaron Ekblad from Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Reinhart | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 17:01 | FLA | Brandon Montour unassisted | 0–2 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 5:36 |  OTT | Thomas Chabot unassisted | 1–2 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 8:46 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 1:36 | FLA | Anton Lundell from Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot D | 24:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.16 | +0.38 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 13:36 | +0.23 | +0.28 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 13:06 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 17:58 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 13:45 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 7:37 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 7:13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 9:14 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 14:56 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 15:05 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.32 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:10 | −0.11 | +0.18 | −0.36 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 17:44 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 19:13 | −0.14 | +0.25 | −0.37 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 18:48 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:56 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 18:57 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.32 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Artem Zub D | 20:11 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 24:18 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 61:36 | +0.64 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Lundell C | 15:11 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.09 | +0.43 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:32 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.38 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 6:57 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:03 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 24:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.22 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 15:54 | +0.08 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:20 | +0.00 | +0.23 | −0.23 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 11:05 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:24 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 10:15 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:27 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:51 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:45 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 19:13 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:11 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.38 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 12:09 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 15:22 | −0.34 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 15:51 | −0.64 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 61:36 | +1.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.