TOR beat STL 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (TOR 2.2, STL 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Auston Matthews scored on the power play at 0:45 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 49% to 73%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:22 |  TOR | Matthew Knies from Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 17:14 |  STL | Brandon SaadPP from Colton Parayko, Oskar Sundqvist | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 0:45 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Mitch Marner | 2–1 | 49% → 73% |
| P3 7:29 | TOR | William NylanderSH unassisted | 3–1 | 77% → 94% |
| P3 18:52 | STL | Pavel BuchnevichPP from Torey Krug, Robert Thomas | 3–2 | 0% → 5% |
| P3 19:22 | TOR | Bobby McMannEN from Mitch Marner, TJ Brodie | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 18:35 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.07 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 19:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.21 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Matthew Knies L | 13:51 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.09 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 23:29 | +0.27 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 23:59 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 11:54 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 15:36 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 21:02 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 11:20 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marshall Rifai D | 11:33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 11:09 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 23:45 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxime Lajoie D | 13:44 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:40 | 3 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 10:05 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 13:57 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Kampf C | 14:40 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:08 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:00 | −0.14 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Saad L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.09 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:33 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.07 | +0.69 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Torey Krug D | 24:19 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Rosen D | 11:51 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:46 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 12:48 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 11:59 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 16:46 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 7:49 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 22:31 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 11:41 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:12 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 13:56 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 19:38 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.25 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:44 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 25:18 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:29 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 18:39 | −0.44 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 56:38 | −0.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.