CBJ beat SJS 4–3. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Boone Jenner scored at 19:47 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 49% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:39 | SJS | Anthony Duclair unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:16 |  CBJ | Zach Werenski from Johnny Gaudreau, Jack Roslovic | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 16:24 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Egor Chinakhov, Erik Gudbranson | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 7:14 | CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov from Egor Chinakhov, Erik Gudbranson | 3–1 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 7:33 | SJS | Anthony Duclair from Fabian Zetterlund, Calen Addison | 3–2 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 15:29 | SJS | Fabian ZetterlundPP from Calen Addison, Mikael Granlund | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 19:47 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Johnny Gaudreau, Ivan Provorov | 4–3 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boone Jenner C | 22:46 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.46 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 25:32 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.36 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:30 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.18 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 15:05 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.11 | +0.63 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 20:49 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.26 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 22:11 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.49 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 21:39 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.34 | −0.53 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 18:14 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:27 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 6:57 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:05 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 19:47 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:32 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 13:53 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:12 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 11:17 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 6:26 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 12:52 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 58:52 | −0.37 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair L | 18:58 | 2 | +1.13 | −0.19 | +1.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 20:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.29 | +0.82 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 13:14 | +0.19 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 10:18 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 9:42 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 16:17 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:45 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 16:25 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 21:33 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 14:44 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 10:32 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 17:25 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 19:09 | −0.22 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 25:25 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 11:36 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 11:19 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:25 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| William Eklund L | 20:30 | −0.63 | −0.21 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 59:43 | −0.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.