BUF beat MIN 3–2 in overtime. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Henri Jokiharju scored at 1:29 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 0:39 | BUF | Casey Mittelstadt from Henri Jokiharju | 1–0 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 4:02 | MIN | Joel Eriksson Ek from Kirill Kaprizov | 1–1 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 11:21 | MIN | Declan ChisholmPP from Marcus Johansson, Marco Rossi | 1–2 | 53% → 84% |
| P3 19:23 | BUF | Dylan CozensPP from Jordan Greenway, Tage Thompson | 2–2 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 1:29 | BUF | Henri Jokiharju from Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:05 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.27 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 17:56 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.12 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 22:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.60 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 30:47 | +0.49 | +0.35 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johnson D | 10:57 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 14:30 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 19:56 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 12:18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:05 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 14:19 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 14:00 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 7:44 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 20:57 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.16 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 18:30 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:57 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.11 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 10:07 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 18:31 | −0.42 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:49 | −0.53 | −0.16 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:47 | +1.13 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Chisholm D | 14:46 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.03 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:59 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.14 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 20:42 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 12:10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 16:59 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Jake Lucchini C | 11:11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 11:09 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:30 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:43 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:13 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:28 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 11:21 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:25 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 18:26 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 12:12 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:00 | −0.43 | +0.10 | −0.32 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 26:40 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:24 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.12 | −0.47 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 61:29 | +0.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.