EDM beat DAL 4–3 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Evan Bouchard scored on the power play at 0:30 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Jake Oettinger allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:08 |  DAL | Mason MarchmentPP from Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 2:03 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Mattias Ekholm, Corey Perry | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:47 | DAL | Thomas Harley from Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 6:55 | EDM | Corey Perry from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 18:42 | EDM | Derek RyanSH from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 19:02 | DAL | Matt DuchenePP from Mason Marchment, Thomas Harley | 3–3 | 29% → 52% |
| OT 0:30 | EDM | Evan BouchardPP from Leon Draisaitl | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:32 | 2 | +0.95 | +0.19 | +0.82 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 10:15 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.06 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:05 | 2 | +0.59 | +0.26 | −0.00 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 22:48 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.21 | −0.28 | +0.30 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 16:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.28 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Cody Ceci D | 19:33 | +0.13 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:59 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 18:03 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:00 | +0.03 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 12:03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:55 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 6:38 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 13:02 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 9:04 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 11:29 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 18:48 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:21 | −0.23 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 15:53 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 60:10 | −0.48 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 16:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.73 | −0.04 | +0.34 | +0.25 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mason Marchment L | 18:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.03 | +0.33 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Thomas Harley D | 22:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.03 | +0.36 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Craig Smith C | 9:54 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 12:16 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 12:56 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 12:23 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 11:47 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 12:22 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 12:39 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:40 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 21:37 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 15:17 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 21:03 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:18 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 17:38 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 17:22 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:30 | −1.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.