SJS beat CGY 6–3. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Justin Bailey scored at 7:50 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Dustin Wolf allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:19 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Martin Pospisil | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 4:52 | SJS | Mikael Granlund from Filip Zadina | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 7:50 | SJS | Justin Bailey from Filip Zadina | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 12:30 | SJS | Luke KuninPP from William Eklund, Kyle Burroughs | 3–1 | 70% → 85% |
| P2 19:40 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin | 3–2 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 4:38 | SJS | Filip Zadina from Nico Sturm, Justin Bailey | 4–2 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 5:15 | SJS | Filip Zadina from Justin Bailey, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 5–2 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 15:30 | SJS | Luke Kunin unassisted | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 16:40 | CGY | Andrei Kuzmenko from Chris Tanev, Jonathan Huberdeau | 6–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Zadina R | 12:05 | 2 | 2 | +1.78 | +0.11 | +1.51 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Luke Kunin C | 17:27 | 2 | +1.28 | −0.06 | +1.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:00 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Justin Bailey R | 9:57 | 1 | 2 | +0.76 | +0.08 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| William Eklund L | 19:21 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 16:05 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 19:05 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 19:38 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 10:31 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 10:51 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 13:54 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 20:11 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:12 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 13:06 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 14:32 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 10:07 | −0.37 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 18:26 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | +0.33 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:40 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.15 | +0.56 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:43 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.04 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 13:43 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:41 | +0.25 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 14:20 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Oliver Kylington D | 15:48 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 14:51 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 18:42 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Schwindt C | 7:40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 24:28 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:33 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:58 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:37 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 17:55 | −0.22 | +0.12 | −0.52 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:44 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.35 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Walker Duehr R | 9:13 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:32 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:58 | −0.56 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.56 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | −3.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.