WPG beat SJS 1–0. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 1.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Morgan Barron scored at 17:47 of the first, moving WPG’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Kaapo Kahkonen saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:47 |  WPG | Morgan Barron from Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Carpenter C | 11:31 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 20:00 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 9:33 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 12:56 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 18:19 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:59 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 14:18 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 14:53 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 16:46 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 10:41 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 25:17 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 17:48 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:50 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 16:11 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Calen Addison D | 18:31 | −0.29 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 17:38 | −0.45 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 19:38 | −0.48 | −0.36 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:09 | −0.90 | −0.28 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.37 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 59:02 | +2.74 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Barron C | 9:24 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.09 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:45 | +0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 14:11 | +0.26 | +0.31 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:29 | +0.21 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 19:40 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.29 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:44 | +0.19 | +0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 20:38 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.30 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 15:04 | +0.13 | +0.33 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 10:46 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 14:41 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 15:23 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 10:20 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 14:58 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 16:01 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:29 | −0.28 | +0.17 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:03 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:09 | −0.61 | +0.25 | −0.83 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 21:36 | −0.63 | +0.06 | −0.65 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 59:39 | +1.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.