MTL beat ANA 5–0. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jake Evans scored at 1:43 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 53% to 72%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:43 | MTL | Jake Evans from Tanner Pearson, Josh Anderson | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 9:37 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Juraj Slafkovský, Jayden Struble | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 17:00 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Juraj Slafkovský, Alex Newhook | 0–3 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 7:26 | MTL | Juraj SlafkovskýPP from Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 17:15 | MTL | Brandon Gignac from Kaiden Guhle | 0–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carrick C | 10:57 | +0.19 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 17:37 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:20 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 22:53 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 11:42 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 6:52 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 20:04 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:44 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 16:03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:52 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 17:49 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 16:52 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:47 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 14:29 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 15:24 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 18:05 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 23:39 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 12:49 | −0.69 | −0.01 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | −0.83 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:36 | 2 | 1 | +1.45 | +0.13 | +1.10 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Brandon Gignac C | 10:50 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.02 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:51 | 1 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.12 | +0.66 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake Evans C | 16:39 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Joel Armia R | 15:19 | +0.28 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:12 | +0.14 | +0.27 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 8:45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 17:28 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 10:58 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 17:01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 13:28 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Roy R | 10:51 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 13:02 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 19:09 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 16:33 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 20:37 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.15 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 16:48 | −0.50 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 20:20 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.11 | −0.83 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 59:33 | +0.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.